Natural Gas Supply Recommendations (2024 to 2028)?

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- Paul
 Participant
 
 October 28, 2024 at 10:31 am
 
 Post count: 9
 #4580
 Hi OCAPPA Energy Community!
 
 I’m reaching out to see what other Ontario Colleges are doing with respect to supplying natural gas to their institutions for the next 4 years? Please see some of my questions I have below:
 
 1. Are you hedging any or all of your natural gas?
 
 A) If yes, how much and what are your rates?
 
 B) If not, why not?
 
 2. Do you see natural gas being volatile or stable for the next 4 to 5 years?
 
 3. Are you working with a natural gas advisory service company to help procure gas? If so, which one?
 
 Your responses to these questions are greatly appreciated.
 
 Here at Lambton, we’re trying to make an informed decision as to how to procure our gas for the next 4 years.
 
 Thanks!
 
 Paul Cochrane
 
 OCAPPA Energy Subcommittee Chair
 
 Lambton College
 
 This topic was modified 1 year, 4 months ago by Paul.
- Jelena.Vulovic-Basic@durhamcollege.ca
 Participant
 
 October 28, 2024 at 11:47 am
 
 Post count: 1
 #4582
 Yes, we are hedging and are working with Blackstone as our agent.
 
 Recently we have hedged more based on the analyses that the price may go up / market is volatile.
 Dawn, CAD/GJ:
 
 Nov24 to Oct25 – 30% of DCQ or 77 GJ/day @ $4.05/GJ
 
 Nov25 to Oct26 – 20% of DCQ or 52 GJ/day @ $4.665/GJ
 
 This reply was modified 1 year, 4 months ago by Jelena.Vulovic-Basic@durhamcollege.ca.
 
 This reply was modified 1 year, 4 months ago by Jelena.Vulovic-Basic@durhamcollege.ca.
 
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- Spencerwood
 Participant
 
 October 28, 2024 at 3:52 pm
 
 Post count: 18
 
 #4586
 
 Humber is buying from Shell, who just told us they are getting out the direct to consumer market. So I need a new supplier / marketer after this winter.
 
 We tend to take on more risk than others, so we are not doing much hedging. I locked in transportation from AECO to Dawn at a fixed price, but am floating gas supply. This is based on watching the spot market price be much less than fixed for a while now, and I only need to get to April.
 
 It’s all gamble, who knows what to do? But I am expecting our gas consumption to drop dramatically over the next few years as we decarbonize, so perhaps the end is in sight, for gas at least…….
- Anonymous
 Inactive
 
 November 1, 2024 at 9:41 am
 
 Post count: 1
 
 #4595
 
 1. Are you hedging any or all of your natural gas?
 Yes, we’re hedging about 25% for the coming winter. Similar to Spencer, I’m not overly concerned about what price fluctuations will hit for the bulk of the winter months. Sometimes it’s nice to have a bit of buffer when we get polar vortex events or market weirdness.
 A) If yes, how much and what are your rates?
 Just under $4/GJ
 2. Do you see natural gas being volatile or stable for the next 4 to 5 years?
 I think relatively stable, but costs escalating because of carbon pricing (if current politics prevail) and fundamentals such as increased use of NG on the electrical grid, exports of LNG to the EU and Asia, and a thriving economy.
 3. Are you working with a natural gas advisory service company to help procure gas? If so, which one?
 We’ve worked with Jupiter for over a decade. They’ve been great.
- MArchdekin
 Participant
 
 February 27, 2026 at 2:04 pm
 
 Post count: 3
 
 #5030
 
 This is an interesting conversation as we are reviewing our purchase agreements currently.
 
 1. Are you hedging any or all of your natural gas? Yes, we’re hedged 50% for the 25-26 winter (Dec. – March 2026). This resulted in a small premium for December but due to the crazy price increases at the end of January 2026, we have saved ~$9,000 so far this winter. 
 
 We have a high risk tolerance and generally purchase index gas for the remainder of the year. We were on a fixed price contract previously and this is the first year that we went index and hedged. For the majority of 2025 index was low and stable so we were coming in under the fixed price of $4.20/GJ we had been paying previously. 
 
 We had the same scenario as Humber take place in that we were purchasing from Shell and when they got out of the market we brought on Jupiter to help us manage our pool. 2. Do you see natural gas being volatile or stable for the next 4 to 5 years? Generally it has been relatively low cost and stable, but with the weather this January and February have sparked a review of our purchase agreements. We have one property locked into a purchase agreement with a third-party supplier, the majority of our properties are in the pool managed with Jupiter, and we have a single facility on Enbridge system gas. 
 
 This allowed us to do a cost comparison across all three strategies and we have noticed that system gas is consistently less expensive than either of the other two agreements. 
 
 3. Are you working with a natural gas advisory service company to help procure gas? If so, which one? We work with Jupiter as well. 
 
 We are looking to see if any other organization has noticed anything similar and if you are considering abandoning your pool in favor of switching back to system gas. 
 
 Looking forward to hearing what is going on elsewhere this year. Happy to setup calls and chat about this.
- MArchdekin
 Participant
 
 February 27, 2026 at 2:42 pm
 
 Post count: 3
 #5031
 This is an interesting conversation as we are reviewing our purchase agreements currently.
 1. Are you hedging any or all of your natural gas
 Yes, we’re hedged 50% for the 25-26 winter (Dec. – March 2026). This resulted in a small premium for December but due to the crazy price increases at the end of January 2026, we have saved ~$9,000 so far this winter.
 We have a high risk tolerance and generally purchase index gas for the remainder of the year. We were on a fixed price contract previously and this is the first year that we went index and hedged. For the majority of 2025 index was low and stable so we were coming in under the fixed price of $4.20/GJ we had been paying previously. 
 We had the same scenario as Humber take place in that we were purchasing from Shell and when they got out of the market we brought on Jupiter to help us manage our pool
 2. Do you see natural gas being volatile or stable for the next 4 to 5 years?
 Generally it has been relatively low cost and stable, but with the weather this January and February have sparked a review of our purchase agreements. We have one property locked into a purchase agreement with a third-party supplier, the majority of our properties are in the pool managed with Jupiter, and we have a single facility on Enbridge system gas. 
 This allowed us to do a cost comparison across all three strategies, and we have noticed that system gas is consistently less expensive than either of the other two agreements. 
 3. Are you working with a natural gas advisory service company to help procure gas? If so, which one?
 We work with Jupiter as well. 
 We are looking to see if any other organization has noticed anything similar and if you are considering abandoning your pool in favor of switching back to system gas. 
 
 Looking forward to hearing what is going on elsewhere this year. Happy to setup calls and chat about this.
 
 This reply was modified 3 weeks, 2 days ago by MArchdekin.
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